My wife gave birth to our beautiful daughter two days ago. I am the happiest man in the World!
I’ve enjoyed developing virtual young people in Football Manager for a while, but now I have to do it for real 
So I apologise in advance if I forget to read your blogs, responds to comments or update this blog. I am unlikely to play much Football Manager for a while and I don’t know what the future holds for this blog.
However I am very happy just now 
There is only one word to describe our performance this November – inconsistent!
Until that Dundee United game immediately prior to this Juventus match (see results screenshot), it was only the Old Lady who had beaten me in competitive fixtures this season.
Despite knowing from last months analysis that Juventus do well against 451 (aka 41221) formations, I still went with this against their 352. However this time I opted to try and control the match, given that we were playing at home.
On the whole it was a fairly even game although Juve created far more chances that we could. It was a great concern that, once again, when we got the ball we couldn’t do very much with it.
We did well with a free kick to open the scoring but Juve equalled on the 32nd minute. When they eventually took the lead on the 80th I changed to my usual 4231 but failed to get anything back.
That said, I am proud of the players performances, if only we could have created more chances…
The final home match of this Champions League campaign was against Zenit. I really needed the win here to keep myself in with a chance of 2nd place.
As with all home matches in the Champions League, I started aiming to control possession, in spite of the talented Zenit team before me.
Although possession was roughly equal and Zenit had a large number of chances, I did feel that we were the stronger side. We got off to a great start, going 1-0 then 2-0 up in the first half. In the second, we even managed to get a third before Zenit pulled one back. However their joy was short-lived as Kerzhakov was sent off in the 67th minute and they never got back in the game.
But the players held on remarkably well and credit goes especially to Izaguirre and Samaras who were lethal down the left side.
With one match left, we’re still in 2nd place. However the last fixture is away to Chelsea. Since we are two points ahead of them, we must simply avoid defeat to go through. If we lose, we will be in the Europa League.
In the SPL, although we beat Dunfermline comfortably, my 2nd string sides were comprehensively beaten by both Dundee United and Inverness Caledonian Thistle.
Against Dundee United our persistent fouling did us no favours but the score was already 4-2 when Marcus Fraser got sent off. I’m more concerned at the number of very poor performances on the day though and that we could not defend.
The Inverness game also contained a lot of fouls (with fewer cards) but equally poor defending.
But what’s interesting about this game is that I tried a different setup for defending set-pieces. This was in response to over a months-worth of Match Training Focus on “Defending Set-Pieces” yielding more complaints from my assistant manager that we were vulnerable from set pieces. I agreed, we did seem to be letting in a number of goals from free kicks and corners.
But Inverness scored two goals from corners, and we defended them miserably.
My question is – how do you defend your set pieces?
Unsurprisingly our lead at the top has been cut down. From 8 points two months ago to 3 today is quite worrying.
In Europe, as a whole the team is playing well. Samaras is leading the way but Matthews, Rogne and Mulgrew deserve praise. At the other end, Assuncao could be better while the younger players Laursen, Forrest and Watt haven’t really been given enough time to be judged.
The overall ratings also make good reading – Hooper, Samaras are top dogs again but Polworth is playing extremely well for someone so young. There’s also great performances from Rogne, Mulgrew, Izaguirre and Matthews. At the other end, Fraser and Laursen are struggling a little and I am becoming concerned about Laursen. I cannot see me turning his loan into a permanent deal the way he’s playing.
Remarkably, this is the first month in a long time that I have no injuries!
The Reserves (mainly made up of U19s) remain top of their league, by 6 points with a game in hand.
The U19s focus is now only on playing in the Reserve League as they are out of both the U19s Scottish Cup and the Next Gen Series.
I am going to look at changing the U19s manager. However I cannot decide if I should replace Miodrag Krivokapic now or later.
We made a tiny loss of just £0.3m. Tax (£1.6m), Player Wages (£1.2m) and Match Day Expenses (£1m) were the biggest expenses while Gate Receipts (£4.2m), Prize Money (£0.9m) and Match Day Income (£0.8m) were the greatest sources on income.
Projected profit is £15.47m, down from £18.35m last month and down from £27.02m this time last year.
While in Europe, we had one excellent and one unlucky performance, it was the inconsistency in the SPL which gave me most concern.
This was coupled by a worry that the team seems unable to defend particularly well at set pieces.
So how do you defend set pieces?
After being unbeaten in September 2013, which included an away win over Zenit St. Petersburg, October 2013 showed me just how far the team has come and, how much more it needs to grow to be a truly elite European team.
Playing the team currently ranked 4th in Europe, even at home, was going to be tough. That said, it is the home matches which are likely to determine whether or not Celtic get out of this group at all, never mind into the Champions League Last 16.
For that reason, I set the team up to control the match, my thoughts being that we need to try and score ourselves, more so than prevent Chelsea from doing so.
And with the help of some incredible individual peformances from Rogne, Mulgrew, Brown and Ledley we did just that. A Scott Brown goal opened the scoring in the first half while Thomas Rogne headed in a Charlie Mulgrew corner kick to score the 2nd just after half time.
Although the possession statistic shows the match in Chelsea’s favour, Celtic created far more chances, though I know this was partially due to our aggressive style, which meant we committed a lot of fouls too.
But a win is a win, and beating the top seeds in the group at home left us top of the group after two games with Juventus beating Zenit in Turin!
Juventus presented a real challenge to my Celtic side. On one hand, with key players such as Buffon, Matri and Vucinic injured it looked like we might have an advantage. In fact, the pre-game analysis has us favourites! But looking deeper, at Juventus tactical analysis, showed that they were dangerous against my favoured European formation – 41221.
It was made all the more difficult by their unusual starting formation (for the modern day that is) of a flat 352.
Although I started with a 451 (of 41221) Counter, I swiftly moved from Counter to Standard to Control strategy as Juventus piled on the pressure. I also tried to exploit their lack of numbers out wide but was under so much pressure I could never take advantage.
We were well and truly battered. Some miserable performances from Mulgrew and Izaguirre contributed. But I take a lot of the blame upon myself. I was out of ideas of how to cope with Juventus 352 formation and relentless pressing.
So we’re 2nd in Group H after 3 matches and I’m very happy with that – especially since we’ve only played at home once. The other results from this group are below.
It is interesting to look at our co-efficient at this point.
The green arrow shows that our five-year-rolling-co-efficient will increase from 38.598 this season (13/14) to 40.048 next season (14/15). That’s because we’re already doing better than our 08/09 total.
That’s great news because it only helps Celtic improve their European standing, albeit by a small amount. Maybe, if we continue to do well, we can get beat last seasons total of 17.920.
It’s the European performance which gives me the title of this article. On one hand, we beat the top seeded team in our group a comfortable 2-0. Not only that, but we went into the game with the aim to control it. That’s quite a distance for this Celtic side to have come, even though it started with real-life manager Neil Lennon’s rebuilding of the squad. On the other hand, we’ve a long way to go before we can visit the homes of Europe’s biggest clubs and come out with points. Both myself and the players will need to grow to do that.
This month I’ve rotated the squad a lot. Firstly to give the first team players a rest before big European games (e.g. against St. Mirren) but also to try and give the young players in the squad a chance to grow.
That said, there’s no excuse for the draws against Kilmarnock and Aberdeen but it was the senior players who under-performed in these games.
Regardless we’re still unbeaten and still top of the table, with a lead of 6 points, down from 8 last month.
As we have a Champions League match the following midweek of this Scottish League Cup Quarter Final against Hearts, I played a strong side.
The quality shone through, though Hearts had more than enough chances to score. We’ll play Motherwell in the semi-final next year.
The Reserves are still top of the Reserve (U20s) league by 2 points with a game in hand. Again, the squad is made up of mostly U19 players with a few seniors to gain match fitness so it shows we’re in a good position for future seasons.
The U19s however are out of the Next Gen Series despite having two games left to play. Furthermore they are out of the U19s Cup too which is disappointing. My only thoughts about this are that since effectively the U19s are playing both their cup and the reserve league games that the schedule is too much. That said, a change of U19s manager might be in order.
In Europe the players are still doing very well in spite of the Juventus result. Mulgrew and Samaras, with ratings over 7.75 are the best performers though I am slightly concerned that Paulo Assuncao hasn’t reached over 7.00.
Overall Hooper and Samaras are proving to be a deadly combination, both attaining ratings over 7.80 and are also my top goalscorers. At the other end, Jacob Barrett Laursen could be doing a little better, especially if he wants a permanent deal.
It’s no surprise to see us make a loss last month, but at only £1.3m I’m reasonably happy. Tax (£1.3m), Wages (£1.2m) and Match Day Expenses (£0.7m) were our largest expenses but Gate Receipts (£2.5m), Prize Money (£0.9m) and Match Day Income (£0.5m) helped curtail the loss.
Projected profit is down to £18.35m, down from £19m last month but more concerning is that is it down from from the £28.51m from this time last year.
That said, spending on facilities might have something to do with it…
You might remember that this cost £4m. But it’s good to see these improve and I thanked the board by asking them to increase our Junior Coaching Budget, which they did (reluctantly).
It leaves our facilities as follows.
I’ve highlighted the improved Youth Facilities (level: Top Youth Facilities) and Junior Coaching (level: Excellent junior coaching) but it’s worth noting that our Youth Recruitment and Training Facilities are in good shape too – allowing me to train the best players for Celtic.
Clearly the squad is moving in the right direction in terms of its European stature, but we’ve also got a long way to go before we can be Champions of Europe. How would you change the tactics or squad to improve?
After the hectic start to the month where some transfers were concluded, we were able to continue winning matches as we did in August during this month – which we did in style!
The main match this month was against Russian Champions Zenit St. Petersburg in the Champions League. As 3rd seeds, this away match would be the most likely one I could register some points in, and I hoped for a draw.
Zenit’s attacking 4231 has some enviable names in it – Kerzhakov, Danny, Witsel, Bruno Alves, Criscito. But in Hulk was a real threat! Thus I lined up with a 451 Counter Attacking style, not expecting to see much of the ball.
The match started with Zenit having the vast majority of possession and I was forced to move out a little, adopting a Standard and eventually Control style to push their attackers further away from my own goal area.
We scored first before Zenit had a man sent off. They also changed shape numerous times, putting two strikers up against my two centre backs. They were rewarded with a goal for their efforts.
My assistant asked for me to be more attacking with my man advantage, but I didn’t feel right doing so – they were looking very dangerous on the counter attack. Instead I opted to use the width I had in the team (Zenit were playing a narrow formation after the sending off). This resulted in the cross which Gary Hooper connected with to score.
With Chelsea beating Juventus in London, we are in 2nd place after the first match.
In the SPL I rotated the squad quite often to allow for the fact we had matches midweek. Firstly against Ross County I played a mix of 2nd string and youth players but the introduction of Charlie Mulgrew with an excellent performance by Liam Polworth won us the match after going 1-0 down.
Against Dundee it was a straightforward win but against St. Johnstone I again played a mix of 2nd string/youth, due to a match against Chelsea the following mid-week, but we needed two late goals from McGeouch and Watt to seal the win.
The month ends with us top of the table, and our lead dramatically increased to 8 points.
Although unimportant, I’d like to win this tournament at least once. So with a match against new club The Rangers, I opted for a strong team. This would also keep the senior players match fit, and allow them to rest against St. Johnstone (as described above).
We started dreadfully, losing two goals in the first half, before pulling one back on the stroke of half-time. This was despite us clearly dominating the game.
It was truly a game of two halves though – an assertive team talk to kick the players in the backside allowed us to score not long after the restart, and our quality shone through when Liam Polworth scored deep into added on time.
We shall play Hearts (away) in the Quarter Final.
The Reserves have won 4 out of 5 of their Reserve (U20) League games. They are third, three points adrift from the top, but have two games in hand.
The U19s are struggling in the NextGen Series, having lost twice and drawn once. I’m feeling a little guilty about having loaned out a number of their players now.
The excellent performances against Zenit have only improved the Continental Average Ratings for the team. Special mention to Samaras, Mulgrew, Hooper and Izaguirre who have been consistently over the 7.8 mark!
Overall too, the ratings are excellent. Samaras and Hooper, with ratings over 8.00 are notable, but Polworth, McGeough, Fraser and Watt are all showing their worth despite their young age.
Forrest and Kayal have returned from injury however Jacob Barrett Laursen has a fractured arm and is out for 5 to 10 days.
We made a huge loss of £12.1m last month, but it is interesting to note that only £7.6m of this is due to transfer spending! In fact, looking closer, it appears, the lack on income over the course of last month is to blame for the other £4.5m. We had only two home matches.
But I’m not worried because we made such a large profit in August, where most of my transfer income was and more home matches.
Our projected profit is £19m, which is greater than the actual profit of £15.9m from last season. It’s miles down from the £33.85m profit projected at this time last year, which does concern me. Though maybe the latest patch has corrected financial projections.
With the number of transfers going on at the same time, the first competitive matches were definitely a side-show. That said, given the first was the Champions League, Champions 2nd Qualifying Round, with some SPL and more Champions League qualifiers in the meantime, it was important both the team and myself kept focus.
As you can see, this period covers the last couple of matches in July, all of the August ones plus the first in September. It made sense, given when the transfer window shut.
Let’s look at the Champions League matches first.
After beating HB from The Faroe Islands, we played Ventspils of Latvia. With no real players in the team (i.e. they were all the greyed-out sort) the result was never in question.
A 3-1 away win contained the highlight of Liam Polworth starting and scoring. He is now looking like a first team player. Tony Watt and Marcus Fraser also got game time.
The second leg was similarly straightforward.
The final qualifying round saw us drawn against Austrian side SK Sturm Graz. We went into the away game as underdogs.
Despite having a man sent off and losing the possession battle, we were clear winners. New signings Assuncao and Oliseh started.
Going into the home game we were favourites to finish the job off.
Which we did in impressive style. Highlights were Liam Polworth at AMC and Dylan McGeough at AML.
The groups for the Champions League were drawn with Celtic in the 4th pot of seeds again 
We were given a very tough group with Chelsea, Juventus and Zenit St. Petersburg. I’m already glad that I made a profit from my transfer dealings, because we will be very, very lucky to get out of this group, even into the Europa League.
The SPL was very straight forward with wins over all but Hearts, with whom we drew. The best of it was that I was able to rotate the squad a bit – giving game time to the likes of Watt, Fraser and Polworth.
After the first match in September, we are top with a one point lead. Hopefully we’re here to stay!
In Europe, the players have mostly played very well – with Samaras, Mulgrew, Hooper and Izaguirre particularly impressive. Some of the younger players, Fraser, Laursen and Watt haven’t done so well but they have only had opportunities off the bench.
The overall picture looks much the same though Fraser has benefited from a couple of starts.
Injury wise, Kayal is still out for another 3 weeks (hence the signing of Assuncao) while Forrest has 4-9 days out with a broken arm.
The reserves (made up mostly of U19s players + a few seniors) have won their opening two games of the Reserves (i.e. U20s) league.
The U19s meanwhile have been drawn in the NextGen Series group stage against Shakhtar, Porto and Litex U19s and shall start their campaign soon.
If you look at the finances from the end of the transfer window, you can see a huge profit made in August while it appears we’ll make a very large loss in September.
All of this is down to transfer dealings. I’m not particularly worried about the large loss that we’re likely to make in September because the profit in August was so high. Overall I think we’re in a good position, with this season’s profit at £31m already.
The period from the end of July to the beginning of September was dominated by transfers, but it was good to get on a good run of results too. Hopefully this’ll carry us onto success this season.
What are your thoughts on the young Celtic players who have started this season?
What do you think our chances are in the Champions League this year? How far can we go?
In my pre-season 2013-14 post I discussed some of the transfers I had made this window. However I hadn’t anticipated many more.
As it happened, the period from the end of July to the beginning of September was terribly busy. And as I reflect upon my transfer dealings, I felt that a list of transfers made with some summary wouldn’t do it justice. Because in fact, most of the transfers were linked or the result of different factors which took place behind the scenes.
In this post, I’ll talk you through the transfer window in it’s entirety.
At the start of the transfer window, I had identified only a handful of players to sell;
And there were only two weak areas;
which I identified from the squad depth report.
but I felt I had young players to cover these. So all I really wanted to do was bring in promising young players.
There were significant developments during this time.
The Rangnick was tasked with finding me players… more on this later
At this point, I was still on the lookout for young players. I had no reason to strengthen the side though I was about to start my pre-season friendlies which may change that.
The accepted bid for Lecjaks caused me to scout for left backs, since Chalmers was out on loan. I was looking for a young backup though, since Izaguirre is first choice.
Net transfer spend was £1.325m.
I’d had two major transfers – the sale of Lecjaks with his replacement (forced upon me due to the loan of Chalmers) Laursen.
The pre-season campaign had left me confident we were ready for the season ahead. All I was on the lookout for were young players and maybe a DMC to account for Kayal’s long injury.
Net transfer spend was -£1.225m (i.e. I’d made money!)
I’ve started with the transfers in this month.
Now normally I would not spend this much on a player. I believe £5.75m and £27k p/w is too much. But he is 23, with the required high values for Determination, Work Rate and Natural Fitness as well as 4 start potential (3.5 current) I approved this transfer, which Ralf Rangnick conducted. That said, it might be the last given the 10% annual wage rise!
The Oliseh transfer is the second most signicant of the campaign. I am trying to make a profit from transfer dealings, and this meant that Stokes time was up. I also talked to Nouioui and told both of them I planned to sell them since I wasn’t going to renew their contracts. All parties were quite happy.
Victor Wanyama and I had been trying to agree a new contract for a month. We disagreed on one point – a minimum fee release clause. Wanyama’s agent wanted £11.5m, I wanted £15m. I offered different contracts over the course of the month, but none were accepted.
I think what happened next made no sense. Wanyama was concerned about not getting a contract and we had a private chat. I promised one within the month. He requested a transfer before it was over.
I tried another private chat, and he wanted guarantees we would progress as a club. I said we’d made the Champions League Group Stage this season – but he didn’t believe me. At this point we had just won 3-1 away from home in the Champions League Champions Play-Off Round!
Everything went south from here. He refused all private chats and contract negotiations. This was only going to end one way…
All in all I was very happy. Except for one thing – Wanyama. I offered him for £15m to other clubs…
Net transfer spend: £0.45m.
With Wanyama gone, I felt I could strengthen the DC position and MC, as well as buy young players.
Let’s consider the main transfers.
The only place I feel the team has been weakened is in midfield. Wanyama (4 star) is replaced by Ledley or Kayal in the formation, with Allan taking over the more attacking role in the formation.
The right wing is significantly strengthened and I feel the centre of defence and DMC are also stronger.
There are a lot of promising youngsters in the U19s team too.
Overall I think this has been an incredible transfer window. But what do you think? I leave you with the squad depth report, squad lists, current financial position and remaining budgets.
Senior squad;
Reserve squad;
U19s;
Finances!
£31m profit so far this season with a current balance of £51.3m! And it leaves plenty of transfer budget.
I’m £150k p/w under the wage budget (though my own target is £300k p/w) and I had £26.5m left to spend (though I prefer to make a profit from transfer dealings).
